It’s been an interesting year for the Academy. First there was the disastrous (and short-lived) Popular Film category. Then we had Kevin Hart being named host before dropping out soon after. As a result, the ceremony will be host-less for the first time since 1989. Then, and most recently, there was the Academy’s controversial decision to announce four categories (Cinematography, Live Action Short, Film Editing, and Makeup and Hairstyling) during commercial breaks. Those within the industry and fans alike met this with near-universal criticism (the correct response). It took only a handful of days for the Academy to announce the reversal of this decision. Suffice it to say it hasn’t been a great year for the Academy. Exactly how all this ultimately affects the ceremony and viewership numbers remains to be seen, of course. But there’s not a lot of positive momentum leading up to it.
One last thing before getting to the predictions. I would venture a guess that a handful of those reading this will be betting on the Oscars. Please do not take this preview as betting advice. The Oscars are tricky to bet on. The favorites often offer minimal ROI, and the long shots are often too long. You need to find value in the middle options.
Now, if you’re stubborn and insist on using my thoughts here as a betting guide, as the general of general advice, consider those in the “Who could win” sections. While not the favorites to win, most of those should have positive ROI odds (by that I mean they’re a +200, for example, rather than -200).
Okay, onto the awards themselves. For each category, I’ll say who I think will win, who should win, and which outsider(s) might have a chance to win. As a bit of a shameless plug, there are plenty of categories where my personal “winner” wasn’t even nominated. So if you’re interested in my personal picks for the Big 6 awards, you can check out my 2018 Movies in Review post.
I’ll look at the major above-the-line awards first: Best Picture, Best Director, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. I’ll go through the remaining categories alphabetically.
Roma is the front-runner, though it’s far from a sure thing. For one, history is not on its side, as no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture. Green Book won the Producers Guild of America award for Best Theatrical Film, an award that is often predictive of the Best Picture winner. However, the different controversies surrounding the movie could sway voters away from awarding it the year’s top prize. BlacKkKlansman has nominations in several key categories in which Best Picture winners are often nominated. You also can’t forget about the massive cultural impact of Black Panther. While maybe not as good of a pure movie as some of the others on this list, that fact could win over voters.
In addition, The Favourite has proven to be incredibly popular, and the preferential voting system for Best Picture might allow it to slip in. I think A Star is Born is the best of the bunch, but it has really lost steam. Vice has fallen well behind the other nominees, and it would be truly shocking to see it win. Then there’s Bohemian Rhapsody. It’s been on a hot streak lately, but has no business winning this award, much less even being nominated. Regardless of its quality as a film, Bryan Singer’s attachment to the film might be all it takes for voters to go in a different direction.
What will win: Roma
What should win:A Star is Born
What could win: Green Book, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther (yep, lots of ways for this to go)
If you’ve been following the Oscar news at all, or are just a big movie fan in general, you already know that this is Spike Lee’s first Best Director nomination. While Cuarón is the heavy favorite, Oscar voters might feel like Lee is due. I don’t want to say he’s “owed” an Oscar win, but he has certainly proved himself worthy. And to not even have one nomination until now seems downright loony. With Roma expected to win its fair share of other awards, it wouldn’t be entirely a surprise to see Lee come out on top here.
Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who should win: Spike Lee
Who could win: Spike Lee
Christian Bale gave the best performance of the year, and I don’t think it was particularly close. He disappeared into the role of Dick Cheney. Rami Malek also gave a great performance, no question. But there were too many instances throughout the movie where it felt like you were watching Malek play Freddie Mercury. With Bale, you almost forgot that he was even in the movie. Either way, it’s down to a two-man race between Bale and Malek.
Who will win: Rami Malek
Who should win: Christian Bale
Who could win: Christian Bale
Glenn Close is sitting as the favorite, but we can’t forget about Olivia Colman. She still has a fighting chance, especially with her BAFTA win. I still think Lady Gaga is the most deserving, but she’s slid down the ranks, the way A Star is Born seemingly has in multiple categories. Melissa McCarthy would also be more-than-deserving, but she’s barely even being talked about at this point.
Who will win: Glenn Close
Who should win: Lady Gaga
Who could win: Olivia Colman
Ali is at a definite advantage here, as he is essentially a co-lead with Viggo Mortensen. But make no mistake, he gives an award-worthy performance, so a win would be well-earned. That being said, this is one of the strongest categories this year, so voters can’t really go wrong.
Who will win: Mahershala Ali
Who should win: I’m partial to Sam Elliott, but I loved all five performances, though I don’t agree with the Rockwell nomination. He was great, but even for a supporting role, his part was just too small.
Who could win: If not Ali, Grant will likely take it. But don’t forget about Elliott and the “he’s never won one before so let’s give him one this time” sentiment. And with Ali already having won this award, voters might be inclined to give Elliott his due here.
Regina King has all the momentum heading into the Oscars. A win by anyone else would be pretty surprising at this point.
Who will win: Regina King
Who should win: King was great, but for me it’s a coin flip between Stone and Weisz.
Who could win: I don’t see anyone other than King having much of a chance, but Adams is still in the discussion, and Weisz isn’t too far behind Adams.
Who will win: BlacKkKlansman
Who should win: BlacKkKlansman
Who could win: Beale Street maybe? And don’t forget about Star Is Born, as it could be a sort of consolation prize for Cooper losing out on a Best Director nomination. Also keep in mind that Can You Ever Forgive Me? won this award at the Writers Guild Awards. That is often an indicator of the Oscar winner.
Who will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who should win:Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who could win: This should be open-and-shut, but Incredibles 2 is a Disney/Pixar film. You can never count them out. Spider-Verse was so fresh and unique, on top of being a great all-around movie. It deserves the win.
Who will win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who should win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who could win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who will win: Roma
Who should win: The Favourite
Who could win: A Star Is Born
Who will win: The Favourite
Who should win: The Favourite
Who could win: Black Panther
I have unfortunately not seen any of these, but it seems to be a two-horse race between RBG and Free Solo. The real news here is that neither Won’t You Be My Neighbor? nor Three Identical Strangers received nominations.
Who will win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who should win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who could win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is a hard one to pick, and the oddsmakers are tending to agree. Let’s count Green Book out, but any of the other four is a reasonable result.
Who will win: The Favourite
Who should win: Any of them?
Who could win: Again, any of them?
Who will win: Roma
Who should win: I’ve only seen Roma so I can’t accurately comment on this. But even though the other four have been well-received, Roma is the consensus pick.
Who could win: Nobody. Roma has this locked up.
Who will win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who should win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who could win: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Who will win: Vice
Who should win: Mary Queen of Scots.Vice is getting the benefit from Christian Bale’s unreal transformation into Dick Cheney. But Mary Queen of Scots was better as a whole.
Who could win: There are only three nominees, so this part doesn’t apply as much. But Vice seems to pretty much be a sure thing.
Who will win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Who should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Who could win: Black Panther, maybe Mary Poppins returns
Who will win: The Favourite
Who should win: Green Book, though I would love to see Paul Schrader get some recognition for First Reformed.
Who could win: I want to say Green Book has a chance, but you have to wonder if the surrounding controversy has effectively killed any hope. And voters obviously loved Roma, as evidenced by its 10 nominations. So you can’t count it out here.
Who will win: “Shallow”
Who should win: “All the Stars”
Who could win: Good joke. “Shallow” won this award as soon as the first trailer for ASIB came out. Hot take though, “Shallow” is at best the third best song in ASIB. It’s without a doubt a great song, but “Always Remember Us This Way” and “I’ll Never Love Again” are better.
Original Score and Production Design are probably Black Panther’s best chances at taking home any wins. And I can’t see it going 0-7. I don’t see Beale Street losing in Original Score, so that leaves Production Design as my pick for Black Panther’s one win for the evening. And that’s not to say I’m calling it a token award or anything by any means; this would be a deserved win.
Who will win: Black Panther
Who should win: The Favourite
Who could win: The Favourite
Who will win: First Man
Who should win: A Quiet Place
Who could win: A Quiet Place
Who will win: A Star Is Born
Who should win: A Star Is Born
Who could win: First Man
Who will win:Avengers: Infinity War
Who should win: Avengers: Infinity War
Who could win: Realistically, none of the other four stand much a chance. But Christopher Robin is interesting, if you’re looking to put some money on a long shot. The CGI was nothing short of fantastic, so it would be deserving of a win on that merit alone.
The 91st Academy Awards ceremony airs this Sunday, February 24 at 8pm/7 CT on ABC. Be sure to follow along online and on Twitter for live updates throughout the night.
