It’s been a wild and fun tournament down in Melbourne. Before the tournament started, most everyone would have predicted yet another Nadal/Federer final. And with a number of the top players going out early, that possibility was looking more and more like a certainty. Four of the top ten seeds failed to make it past the third round, three unseeded players made it through to the quarterfinals, two of whom advanced into the semi finals. But when it was all said and done, two of the game’s best stood tall through it all.
Roger Federer, 19-time Grand Slam champion, fan favorite, the best of all time. And Marin Cilic, winner of one U.S. Open. But make no mistake, even with all the other giants falling, there’s no question these two earned their spot. It’s been vintage Federer so far, not having dropped a set yet. If you only look at the scores, he’s had his share of close sets, but, as anyone who has watched any of his matches can attest to, none of his matches have ever been in any doubt. They may have been close by score, but there was never any real feeling that Federer was in danger of losing any one of those sets. Cilic, on the other hand has had a considerably tougher road to the final, with both his quarterfinal and semi final matches being five set victories (although it’s fair to mention that Nadal retired in the fifth with Cilic leading 2-0). These longer matches have resulted in Cilic spending nearly six more hours on court than Federer. With a well-rested Federer cruising into the final, stamina could play a part here. But with two top players playing on one of the game’s biggest stages, both of whom are playing at truly elite levels, I wouldn’t put too much stock into that.
As well as Federer has played, Cilic has been unbelievable as well. It’s reminiscent of his run to the 2014 U.S. Open title. If he can channel that against Federer he’ll have a chance. But it would be dumb to bet against Federer at this point. If we get the same Fed that we’ve gotten up this point, I don’t think it matters how perfectly Cilic plays. But if Cilic is aggressive and attacks at every opportunity, he just might have some hope if Federer’s level were to dip even a little. Given that it would take a near perfect set of circumstances for Cilic to come out the victor, I have to go with my gut and pick Federer to go home the Australian Open champion for the second year in a row.
Prediction: Federer in straight sets and just for the heck of it, let’s go for a score prediction too.
6-4, 6-3, 7-5
Assuming I can stay awake, I plan on live tweeting the match. We’ll plan on tweeting from the News from the Couch account as well.
