The 2018 Australian Open is upon us. The men’s singles draw can be found here. The seeds are below along with their odds, according to Bovada.
1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) +400
17) Nick Kyrgios (AUS) +1600
2) Roger Federer (SUI) +180
18) Lucas Pouille (FRA) +10000
3) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) +900
19) Tomas Berdych (CZE) +6600
4) Alexander Zverev (GER) +1200
20) Roberto Bautista-Agut (ESP) +10000
5) Dominic Thiem (AUT) +5000
21) Albert Ramos-Vinolas (ESP) not listed
6) Marin Cilic (CRO) +2500
22) Milos Raonic (CAN) +3300
7) David Goffin (BEL) +1800
23) Gilles Muller (LUX) +25000
8) Jack Sock (USA) +5000
24) Diego Schwartzman (ARG) +20000
9) Stan Wawrinka (SUI) +2500
25) Fabio Fognini (ITA) +30000
10) Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) +15000
26) Adrian Mannarino (FRA) +35000
11) Kevin Anderson (RSA) +5000
27) Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) +30000
12) Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) +1400
28) Damir Dzumhur (BIH) not listed
13) Sam Querrey (USA) +12500
29) Richard Gasquet (FRA) +15000
14) Novak Djokovic (SRB) +500
30) Andrey Rublev (RUS) +10000
15) Jo-Wilifried Tsonga (FRA) +10000
31) Pablo Cuevas (URU) +30000
16) John Isner (USA) +15000
32) Mischa Zverev (GER) +30000
Based strictly on the odds, you would expect another Federer v. Nadal final, which would surprise exactly no one. However, Nadal hasn’t played a real match since withdrawing from the ATP Tour World Finals in November due to a knee injury, so that will be something to keep an eye on. And of course Dimitrov, A. Zverev, and Thiem are all big time players in their own right. It would be no shock at all to see any one of them make a deep run. And you can’t forget about Djokovic, whose injuries have dropped his seed all the way down to 14. If he’s 100%, or close to it, he’s still as good as, or better, than anyone else in the draw. Nick Kyrgios is also a dark horse, at +1600, with some advantage surely gained by playing in his home country. He has all the talent in the world, it’s just a question of if he can put it all together for the full two weeks.
Draws Top half: Assuming his knee holds up, Nadal should get through to the 4th Round fairly easily, where a likely meeting against John Isner would be waiting. On a good day, Isner could make for a hard-fought match, but I still like Nadal to come out on top. But with Isner’s typically high hold percentage, it could be a long, tiring match for Rafa, potentially depleting his energy and stamina somewhat for the later rounds. Marin Cilic would be the probable opponent in the Quarterfinals, a match which Rafa should win handily. Grigor Dimitrov will likely (hopefully, if you ask me) be waiting in the Semi Finals. Dimitrov could face a tricky 4th Round against Kyrgios, but if he can get past that, you should be able to pencil him in for a Semi Final appearance.
Bottom half: On paper, Federer probably has the easiest path to the Quarterfinals. He would likely be up against 7th seeded David Goffin, though if del Potro is playing well, we could very well see a Delpo/Fed Quarterfinal. Regardless, I like Federer to make it out and into the Semis with only dropping one or two sets along the way. The last quarter is going to be interesting. This is the most loaded section of the draw. We’ve got 4th seeded Alex Zverev, 5th seeded Dominic Thiem, 9th seeded Stan Wawrinka, and 14th seed Novak Djokovic. And you can never count out a magical string of matches by fan favorite Gael Monfils. Fernando Verdasco is also in this quarter and he’s still capable of beating anyone on his best day. And to round it out there’s also Mischa Zverev, who did take out Andy Murray last year in Melbourne. This will be a fun, hopefully chaotic quarter to watch. I’m still going to go chalk, though, and predict a Thiem/A. Zverev Quarterfinal. This should be a tight match. But if one of them has significantly more court time in their previous matches, that could be the difference maker. I see Thiem having a slightly easier route getting here and that will be just enough to get him past Zverev, but still in a close, competitive match.
Semi Finals: 1) Nadal v. 3) Dimitrov I think Nadal will be less than 100% during this match. The knee will be a factor and Dimitrov will have had an easier time with his previous matches. Dimitrov in four sets.
2) Federer v. 5) Thiem Thiem will have likely had the tougher previous matches, with his victory over Zverev coming on the heels of a tough match against Wawrinka. That is going to play a part here. Experience will also be a factor, as Thiem has only been in two Grand Slam Semi Finals (2016, 2017 French Opens) and never past the 4th Round in any other Major before this one. The nerves get to him and Federer takes care of business. Federer in four sets.
Final 2) Federer v. 3) Dimitrov This would be Dimitrov’s first Grand Slam Final appearance and, like Thiem in the Semis, he’ll have to battle the nerves. And against an all-time great in Federer, you’ve got be at your best from the first point. I think that’s going to be the biggest factor for Dimitrov. If he can stay calm and composed, he could pull this out. He needs to keep it close. The longer it goes, the more it would likely favor him. But I think Federer will be too much. The talent and experience will win out here and Federer takes home his second consecutive Aussie Open title, and sixth overall. Dimitrov’s time will come, maybe even later this year. But this just isn’t it.
Sleepers/Field Disrupters
Nick Kyrgios: Raw talent is off the charts. Mental game has been holding him back. If he’s on, and keep it together between the ears, playing in front of the home crowd could give him the edge he needs.
Frances Tiafoe: Has a tough opening round against del Potro but remember, this is the same kid who went five sets with Federer just last August at the U.S. Open. The talent is there to pull off a huge First Round upset. May not advance very far but an early upset would throw things for a loop right off the bat.
Denis Shapovalov: This kid is electric and enjoyed a super entertaining run to the 4th Round of the 2017 U.S. Open. He struggled a bit after that to close out the year but there’s no questioning the ability. He feeds off energy and if he can get the crowd behind him, he could enjoy a nice little run. A 3rd Round match against Kyrgios could be one of the most fun matches of the whole tournament.
David Ferrer: The absolute definition of a grinder. Someone you can never count out. Doesn’t have the easiest draw, but he’s as steady as they come. If he catches someone on a bad day, he can beat anyone.
Gael Monfils: One of my absolute favorite players to watch. No sleeper list is complete without mentioning Monfils. At times he can play like a top 5 player in the world. But he also goes through stretches where he just doesn’t seem to care at all about what’s happening on the court. As a big fan of his, it can be maddening to watch. But he’s overall so entertaining there are very few players I would root for over him. Unfortunately he will likely play Djokovic in the 2nd Round so his time in Melbourne may be cut short.
The 2018 Australian Open begins Sunday, January 14 (January 15 in Australia). Coverage begins on ESPN2 at 7/6 CT. Full television coverage schedule can be found here.
