With the Australian Open draws being revealed, it’s time to throw down a preview for the year’s first major. We have a few big storylines to watch. First and foremost might now be the beginning of Andy Murray’s farewell tour. He announced his plans to retire after Wimbledon, so all eyes will be on him. Hopefully his lingering injury won’t force him to withdraw. We also have Roger Federer seeking his third straight title Down Under, though Djokovic looks primed to take back the Aussie crown. And there are two big-names coming in with health questions, in Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev. I feel a bit better about Nadal’s prospects, but both will be worth monitoring as the tournament gets underway.
I’ll only be talking about the Men’s Singles draw. That’s what I know best and follow the closest.
Men’s Singles
Djokovic’s Quarter
The top overall seed could have a tough draw. Tsonga is a potential 2nd round opponent. I don’t know how much he has left in the tank at this point, but you never know, he might be able to put it all together for one match. After Tsonga, Djokovic would likely face a run of Shapovalov, Goffin or Medvedev, and Nishikori in the quarters. All players Djokovic should beat, but it’s a tough enough stretch where it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him fall before the semis. That being said, they should be the only things resembling true threats in this quarter. If even one of them loses early, it only widens Djokovic’s path to the semis.
Early Match to Watch: Djokovic v. Tsonga (potential R2 match)
Prediction: Novak Djokovic
Watch out for: Kei Nishikori, Daniil Medvedev, David Goffin, Denis Shapovalov (I stan hard for Shapo)
Zverev’s Quarter
While the talent has never been in question, Zverev has not yet made a deep run any major, having advanced to just one Grand Slam quarter-final. On top of that, he isn’t coming into the tournament at 100% health. I’m still predicting him into the quarters here, though I don’t feel great about it. Watch for a potential third round match against Jack Sock. Assuming he isn’t forced to withdraw due to injury, the big test would be the fourth round, likely against Heyon Chung. Likely waiting for him after that would be Dominic Thiem. I think the quarters is as far as Zverev can go this time around.
This quarter could give us two great fourth round matches in Zverev v. Chung and Coric v. Thiem. And the winner of the Kyrgios/Raonic first round match could be looking to play spoiler.
Early Match to Watch: Nick Kyrgios v. Milos Raonic
Prediction: Dominic Thiem
Watch out for: Alexander Zverev, Hyeon Chung, Borna Coric, Stan Wawrinka, Nick Kyrgios/Milos Raonic (they’re a bit of a twofer, as they play each other in the 1st round)
Federer’s Quarter
The two-time defending champ has a tougher-than-you-might-think first match against Denis Istomin. Assuming he wins there, he will face a qualifier in round two, likely followed by 30th seed Gael Monfils. Monfils is always a fan favorite, someone I love seeing go deep into a tournament, but I don’t see Federer having much of a problem dispatching the Frenchman.
If everything falls into place, here we could have another great set of fourth round matches, seeing Cilic v. Khachanov and Federer v. Tsitsipas; two established top tier players against two young up and comers.
Early Match to Watch: Roberto Bautista Agut v. Andy Murray
Prediction: Roger Federer
Watch out for: Marin Cilic, Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andy Murray (probably not but hey, you never know)
Nadal’s Quarter
This is an intriguing quarter. Yes, Nadal is the tournament’s #2 seed, but he’s at a point in his career where you always have to wonder how he will hold up during a long run on hard courts. This is actually where my one big upset pick comes into play. I’m calling an Alex de Minaur victory over Nadal in the third round. I love de Minaur’s game, and he knows how to get the most out of his talent. Combine that with some question marks surrounding Nadal’s health (and de Minaur feeding off the home crowd), and you’ve got a recipe for an upset.
Kyle Edmund draws an unfortunate first round match against Tomas Berdych. Edmund could very well end up as this year’s “highest seed to lose in the first round.”
Then just on the “this will be fun to watch” side, we get a first round match of John Isner (6’10”) v. Reilly Opelka (7′). I love watching two giants go after each other, just banging it out from the baseline.
Early Match to Watch: Kyle Edmund v. Tomas Berdych
Prediction: Kevin Anderson
Watch out for: Rafael Nadal, Grigor Dimitrov, Kyle Edmund/Tomas Berdych (same as Kyrgios and Raonic, these two are 1st round opponents), Alex de Minaur (my favorite long shot; I’m in love with this kid’s game)
