We’re through the first three rounds of the tournament with the Round of 16 set to get underway tonight. We’ve seen 4 out of the top 10 seeds lose already: #4 Zverev in R3, #7 Goffin in R2, #8 Sock in R1, and #9 Wawrinka in R2. That leaves the field more open for the remaining seeds to make a run. That also means there are a number of more unheralded players with a great opportunity themselves. Let’s take a look at the draws.
TOP HALF
1) Nadal v. 24) Schwartzman
I haven’t been able to see any of Schwartzman’s matches yet but I’d have to believe Nadal makes it through without much trouble.
10) Carreno Busta v. 6) Cilic
In the little bit I’ve seen of Cilic so far, he’s looked very good, somewhat reminiscent of his 2014 US Open win. I like him to move on to face Nadal in the QF. Both are playing at a high level so it should be a great match. I’ll stick with my original prediction of Nadal advancing to the SF, but I’m less confident than I was at the beginning of the tournament.
3) Dimitrov v. 17) Kyrgios
On paper at least this should be the most exciting match of R4. Unfortunately its start time got pushed back to 2:00 AM CT, so I’ll be able to watch very little, if any, of it. I haven’t been able to watch Kyrgios at all, but from what I’ve heard and the highlights I’ve seen, he’s playing as well as he ever has. Check this tweet from Patrick McEnroe, commending both on seemingly finally putting the mental game together with their obvious elite physical talents.
Very very cool to see @NickKyrgios and @GrigorDimitrov stepping up on big stage @AustralianOpen. Always had game, now maturity too. 👍
— Patrick McEnroe (@PatrickMcEnroe) January 19, 2018
Like Nadal, I’ll stand firm on my prediction of Dimitrov advancing here, but it would be no surprise to see Kyrgios come out on top here. Whoever wins this match should be a heavy favorite in their QF match.
Edmund v. Seppi
I’ll be honest, I don’t know a ton about either of these players. Seppi is a long-time veteran, having turned pro in 2002, who has had middling success. Edmund has had some time on the pro tour, turning pro in 2011, but is still just 23 years old. I’ll go on nothing more than a gut feeling and say the young gun rides the adrenaline through to the QF.
BOTTOM HALF
5) Thiem v. Sandgren
Even with a tough five-setter in R3, Thiem has the looked like a champion so far in Melbourne. He’ll likely have to get past Djokovic but I’d still bet on him to advance to his first Aussie SF.
14) Djokovic v. Chung
Djokovic may have caught a break with Chung’s upset of 4th-seeded Zverev in R3. I had never seen Chung play before that match, but it sure seemed like he was playing the single best match of his career. He will likely have to muster up a repeat performance to have a chance against Djokovic. I just don’t see it happening, giving us a great SF match between Djokovic and Thiem.
25) Fognini v. 19) Berdych
Berdych cruised past del Potro with an easy 3-3-2 win in R3. Even if his level dips a little bit in this match, he should roll through to the QF. Berdych has never quite been able to put it together for a full Grand Slam, though he’s been close. He’s made at least one SF in all four Majors, but has advanced to just one final, 2010 Wimbledon where he lost to Nadal in straight sets. Could this finally be his year?
Fucsovics v. 2) Federer
Federer has had no trouble through his first three matches, winning each in straight sets. I see that continuing here, setting up his first true test in the QF against Berdych.
I whiffed on some original predictions (Zverev and Goffin, namely) but my SF picks are still intact. We should be in for a fun back stretch down in Melbourne.
