GILDAN New Mexico Bowl – Marshall vs. Colorado State
Las Vegas spread: Colorado State -5.5
This game is similar to Boise State vs. Oregon. Colorado State has a very small advantage when it comes to strength of schedule and recent performance, and Marshall has the advantage when it comes to how they have played their opponents, specifically defensively.
ESPN only revealed McElroy’s pick for this one, and he took Colorado State for 28 confidence points, which is simply not a good value pick. Colorado State has played poorly in bowl games for the past three years and fell to a terrible Idaho team last year 50-61 (down 14-41 after three quarters). I’ll take the upset again. I’m guessing the fact that Colorado State is much closer geographically to New Mexico (the location of this game) was considered in the making of this 5.5 point spread, but I would still take Marshall straight up at +170 because of the value. I only gave one confidence point to Marshall, though.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Central Michigan vs. Wyoming
Las Vegas spread: Pick
There’s a couple interesting factors that go into this game. First off, I have a feeling this will be a very pro-Wyoming crowd with the game being played in Idaho. Second, Central Michigan is a pass-heavy offense, but Wyoming comes into this game with the 18th ranked pass defense out of 130 eligible teams.
Las Vegas does not have either team as a favorite here, but I actually like Central Michigan. They enter the game riding a five game winning streak, while Wyoming just lost to the 2-11 San Jose Spartans in their last regular season game and has scored a combined 24 points in their last two games. Most of the analytics indicate this game is a toss up, but as I’ve mentioned already, recent performance is not something that can be ignored. I have CMU as about a 60-40 favorite and will take them for nine confidence points.
Foster Farms Bowl – Arizona vs. Purdue
Las Vegas spread: Arizona -4.5
This is where things get interesting. Not only do I think Las Vegas has overestimated Arizona’s likelihood to win this game, I think they just have the wrong projected winner. Sure, Arizona’s offense is great, but they play in the Pac-12. Purdue comes from the Big Ten and is used to a much slower brand of defensive football. Arizona is 7th in the nation when it comes to running the ball, but Purdue is 25th in yards per carry against their defense.
Purdue coach Jeff Brohm is in his first year with the team and has transformed Purdue from a 3-9 team that hadn’t made a bowl game in five years into a team that matches up very well against one of the best offenses in the country. Brohm’s record in bowl games is not too extensive, but the small sample size has been good (3-0). This is a game where you can gain on the bowl pick ‘em field by taking a great underdog value pick in Purdue. I have them for 13 points as about a 55-45 favorite and would take them straight up at +160.
