Camping World Bowl – #22 Virginia Tech vs. #19 Oklahoma State
Las Vegas spread: Oklahoma State -6.5
The pattern forming here is that I’m listing a lot of the games in which my projections differ from the Las Vegas spreads. This is maybe the most extreme of them all. A 6.5 point favorite is a pretty significant indication of what the outcome of the game will be. Oklahoma State’s strength of schedule and last five games or so are the only aspects of this game where the Cowboys can be considered a favorite.
I love Virginia Tech from a defensive standpoint. They are second in the nation when it comes to forcing punts. This is an elite defensive team. Oklahoma State is used to playing the leaky defenses of the Big 12, and the only team they’ve faced that’s remotely close to Virginia Tech on a defensive level is TCU, who beat them 44-31. I would feel comfortable taking them to cover at +6.5 points. I gave them 11 confidence points.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. #21 Northwestern
Las Vegas spread: Northwestern -8.5
I was very surprised to see that Northwestern was an 8.5 point favorite against an SEC school, and I was even more surprised to see that the data indicates they are probably an even bigger favorite. Northwestern is tied with Florida Atlantic for the most likely bowl winners this year according to my statistics as an 80-20 favorite, which is as high as I’m willing to go for any game. I don’t know if I’d pick them -8.5, but I’d maybe throw them into a parlay with a few other games. McElroy have identical confidence point scores for Northwestern with 39 points.
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl – Utah State vs. New Mexico State
Las Vegas spread: Utah State -3
I love this game. The Aggies vs. the Aggies. This is what bowl season is all about. New Mexico State will be competing in their first bowl game since 1960 and will undoubtedly be fired up.
Unfortunately, that’s where the positives end for them. The reality is that New Mexico State had a negative average scoring margin this year against the 117th ranked strength of schedule in the country. In other words, they played almost the weakest schedule in college football and did not manage to out score their opponents overall. In theory, to win this game, Utah State just needs to show up and be a slightly below average team. I have them for 29 confidence points despite just a 3 point spread from Vegas.
