It’s about to be one of my favorite days of the year: MLB opening day! March 29, the earliest Opening Day in league history. And to make it even better, all 30 teams will be in action. If only there wasn’t that pesky work thing to get in the way of watching every game. Baseball season is great by itself, but you know what can make it even better? That’s right, betting your hard-earned money on events that will take months to play out. Exciting right? Well here I’ll lay out some bets that I think are worth placing for this season. These won’t all be bets that I’m placing myself, but I’ll note which ones I taking action on. I don’t do a ton of sports betting. There are two things I’ll consistently bet on. March Madness (Blog post coming later on that. Here’s a preview: It’s not going well) and season long MLB props.
Like everything I cover on this site, I’m a lover not an expert. These are just my personal thoughts and opinions. It should go without saying, but follow my “advice” at your own risk.
All odds are taken from Bovada
A bet with * signifies one I am personally betting on
*World Series Winner
When I’m betting on team champions, I have a hard time going with the favorites, at least in professional sports. The Astros open as the Vegas favorite, at +450, with the Dodgers not too far behind at +550. Me, I’m going with the Yankees (+600) and Nationals (+850). That Yankees offense is going to be scary good. We could be looking at a record-setting season. A team with dominant pitching could keep them in check, but this offense is so loaded, it will be hard to do that for a full game, much less an entire playoff series.
The Nationals are a perennial let-down, but like the Yankees they too have a loaded roster. They have to break through sometime, right? And their improved bullpen should help them do just that.
Team Wins (over/under)
I don’t like putting many bets on team wins in baseball. It’s such a long, grueling season that I just never have much confidence in these outlooks. But I’ll highlight a few that I do like.
Boston Red Sox – Over 91.5 (-165): An already good team that won 93 games last year added another all-star in J.D. Martinez. That alone should be enough to at the very least match that number.
Miami Marlins – Under 64.5 (-140): Is there anything about this team that makes you think they’ll be even remotely competitive? Didn’t think so.
*Minnesota Twins – Over 82.5 (-180): Yeah, it might seem like a bit of a homer pick, and maybe it is. But I believe in this team. And maybe more importantly, I don’t believe in the White Sox, Tigers, or Royals. The Twins improved over the off-season and with so many games against their weaker divisional opponents (with the exception of the Indians, of course) they should be able to rack up wins there.
Oakland A’s – Under 74.5 (+135): They look to be more or less the same team this season. They should end right around this number, but they still have the defending World Series champion Astros in their division, along with an improved Angels squad.
Washington Nationals – Over 92.5 (-200): Similar to the Twins they should be able to dominate their division. Unlike the Twins, they should easily be the best team in their division, so they’ll have four teams to beat up on and hopefully pile up some wins there.
Player Props
This is where it gets fun. It should be noted there are tons and tons of player prop bets to play, so this will barely scratch the surface of what’s out there.
AL MVP: The smart money is on Mike Trout (+130) and you can’t go wrong betting on talent, as he’s still the most talented player in all of baseball. But my money would be on Giancarlo Stanton* (+1400). He’s coming off an NL MVP season and moves into a more favorable ball park and the Yankees lineup is obviously a massive upgrade over the Marlins. He’ll have protection surrounding him all over in the lineup. A repeat performance of 59 home runs may not happen, but he should again go north of 35 HR (easily) and 120 RBI.
NL MVP: While Trout is the most talented player in baseball, Harper (+325) as the most talented player in the NL isn’t exactly a hard argument to make. But I like Nolan Arenado* (+700) and, as a long shot, Clayton Kershaw* (+3000). Arenado has been a stud for the last three years, and now with Stanton off to the AL, could very likely lead the league in both HR and RBI, all while hitting close to or above .300 and playing for a potential playoff team. Kershaw is an other-worldly talent, who already has an MVP (2014) under his belt. It’s not inconceivable that he could double up again on the Cy Young and MVP. Bovada didn’t have this option, but if you can do a parlay bet on a Kershaw Cy Young/MVP double, it might be worth placing a small bet as there would be a big payoff.
AL Cy Young: Not a bet I will be making, but it would be hard to bet on anyone other than Chris Sale (+235) or Corey Kluber (+260). But a popular dark horse has been Dallas Keuchel (+1500). He’s the ace on one of the best teams in the game, and was having himself a potential Cy Young season last year before having his season derailed by injuries.
NL Cy Young: For some reason, Bovada didn’t have odds for the NL Cy Young when I was prepping for this post. But Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw would be the obvious front-runners. But Noah Syndergaard could have a fighting chance, if you’re looking for someone who would likely have a bit of a higher payout.
MLB Home Run Leaders: Yankee teammates Giancarlo Stanton (+375) and Aaron Judge (+600) lead the charge here. While I’m not sure either will hit 50+ again, I couldn’t fault anyone for going with the front-runners. But I would double down on Arenado* (+1800). He’s got great hitters in front of him so he’ll often be at bat with runners on base. Even if teams wanted to pitch around him, they will often be forced to pitch to him given that fact. Factor in he’s an elite player playing half his games at Coors Field, and you’ve got a pretty decent dark horse here. My other pick would be Joey Gallo* (+1500). He hit 41 last year, good for 5th in the majors. And at only 24 years old, the hope is that he’ll continue to improve. I’ll take this last pick to get analytical here. Looking at options for this bet led me to ESPN’s advanced home run stats from 2017. This. Dude. Hit. Bombs. His True Distance was 421.95 ft. Only one other player in all of baseball who hit at least 10 home runs ranked ahead of him. And that was Kennys Vargas. Who hit 11. His speed off the bat of 107.61 led all players with at least 30 home runs. And only 6 of his 41 qualified as “Just Enough.” With Gallo, when it goes, it goes. So yeah, that was probably way more info than was necessary for one simple bet, but hey, it was fun right?
Alright well there you have it. Now get out there and make that money…in October.
All in on Gallo! Took him 25th overall in my work league that uses OBP and SLG instead of AVG. Need him to come through big for Los Gallos Hermanos!