This post has been a long time coming. Not because I’ve been waiting for Joe Mauer to get his 2,000th hit, but instead just because I love talking about him. Mauer is a beloved Minnesota sports figure. He grew up in St. Paul and attended Cretin-Derham Hall High School as a ridiculously talented multi-sport athlete. Drafted by the Twins straight out of high school as the #1 overall pick in the 2001 MLB draft, he spent a few years in the minors and immediately started shredding major league pitching upon his arrival.
Unfortunately, after signing a huge contract extension prior to the 2010 season (but not kicking in until 2011) worth $184 million over eight years, many people have turned on Mauer. He earned this money as a result of outstanding play as a catcher on what was essentially a rookie contract from 2004-2009. Aside from an injury in 2011 that affected his performance, he was the same player from 2011-2013 that he had been before signing the deal.
Then, in 2013, he suffered a concussion that had significant effects on his career. He was forced to move from catcher to first base, and in February of 2016 he still reported blurred vision at times while batting (this article details some of his struggles). It’s pretty obvious he has not been the same player since the concussion, but many people discard the injury and jump to criticism about him not living up to the money.
For starters, let’s look at his pre-concussion and post-concussion splits. I’ll include his slash line (batting average / on-base percentage / slugging percentage) and his OPS, since OPS is currently considered the best stat for judging a player’s offensive production independent of the lineup that surrounds him. I will also include his WAR per game (wins generated above a generic replacement level player) to show the overall value he provides on a nightly basis.
I should add that numbers like runs scored and runs batted in have been used much less in recent years because they are dependent on the success of other batters on a player’s team, so I apologize to you if you criticize Mauer for not generating more runs (but not really). Please join the rest of us in the 21st century at your earliest convenience. For starters, I would suggest checking out the FanGraphs website, which is where I found all stats in this next section.
Pre-concussion slash line (years 2004-2013):
Batting average: .323
On-base percentage: .405
Slugging percentage: .469
OPS (on-base plus slugging): .874
WAR per game: .0364
Post-concussion slash line (years 2014-2017):
Batting average: .277
On-base percentage: .361
Slugging percentage: .390
OPS: .751
WAR per game: .0094
If you are familiar with baseball stats and don’t come to the conclusion by looking at these numbers that his concussion was career-altering, please stop reading at this point and keep any sports-related opinions to yourself forever. There are sudden and significant drop-offs in all three categories.
Let’s now look at his overall career numbers (2004-2017) and compare them to other players who are widely accepted as all-time greats.
Mauer’s stats:
Slash line: .309 / .392 / .444
OPS: .835
WAR per game: .0280
Player A:
Slash line: .303 / .375 / .409
OPS: .784
WAR per game: .0225
Player B:
Slash line: .328 / .393 / .429
OPS: .822
WAR per game: .0293
Player C:
Slash line: .267 / .342 / .476
OPS: .818
WAR per game: .0347
Player D:
Slash line: .285 / .348 / .482
OPS: .830
WAR per game: .0300
Who is mystery player A, you ask? It’s Pete Rose… ever heard of him? He’s the record holder for most career hits recorded in major league baseball and owner of MLB’s second-longest hitting streak of all-time. He’d be a Hall of Famer if it weren’t for his history of gambling on games involving his team. Mauer is better than Pete Rose in literally every category. The only way anyone could claim Rose is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Mauer would be if they put twice as much weight on longevity as they do production.
Player B is Twins legend Rod Carew, who was an All-Star every year of his career except his final one. He is baseball immortality in Minnesota. Among the four players I’m comparing to Mauer, his numbers are the most similar. Carew was elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot.
Player C is Johnny Bench, claimed by some to be the greatest catcher of all-time. Player D is Yogi Berra, also claimed by some to be the greatest catcher of all-time. When comparing Mauer to arguably two of the greatest catchers in MLB history, his stats hold up well. He far exceeds both of them in his ability to get on base, but does so at the expense of some power. His OPS is slightly higher than both, but his WAR per game is lower, partially because his defensive value since moving to first base in 2014 has taken a major hit (not because he’s bad defensively, it’s just an easier position to play than catcher).
However, looking at Mauer strictly as a catcher from 2004-2013 and comparing them to Bench and Berra is mind-boggling.
Joe Mauer:
Slash line: .323 / .405 / .469
OPS: .874
WAR per game: .0364
Johnny Bench:
Slash line: .267 / .342 / .476
OPS: .818
WAR per game: .0347
Yogi Berra:
Slash line: .285 / .348 / .482
OPS: .830
WAR per game: .0300
The OPS numbers indicate Mauer is the best offensive player of the three, and even the WAR per game numbers show he is the best overall value. This isn’t even a small sample size. It’s eight full seasons and two partial ones worth of data as a catcher. Yet, you will rarely hear anyone say Joe Mauer is in the same class as the other two.
But how does Mauer compare to more recent players? Well, from his first full season as a catcher in 2005 through his last one in 2013, his total WAR was 41.8. The next closest was Brian McCann at 28.2. This makes Mauer 48% better in terms of WAR than the second-best player at his position over that period of time. He basically ran circles around everyone else.
More recently, Buster Posey has taken over as baseball’s premiere catcher and his numbers are perhaps even more similar to Mauer’s than Bench’s or Berra’s. I’m just leaving Posey out of this discussion for now as his career is still in progress. Regardless, when everything is said and done, both of them should be in the conversation when it comes to who may be considered the position’s best ever.
While Posey has become what Mauer once was as a catcher, Joe’s career has continued at first base. As evidenced by the post-concussion numbers, he has been a much less productive hitter over the past four years. What puts a bigger spotlight on Mauer’s decline is that first base is generally one of the strongest hitting positions in baseball. While most first basemen hit for above-average power, that was never Mauer’s approach at catcher and his lack of home runs has long been a go-to argument of his critics. Now that he plays first base, he falls shorter of the traditional expectations across the league in terms of the numbers someone at his position should produce.
To put a more positive spin on his recent performance, I’d first like to point out the fact that Mauer is still ranked 26th in the league in on-base percentage since his concussion, which is unbelievable. In his own words, his vision has been blurred at times while hitting, and he is still in the top 5% of active players in his ability to reach base. Allow me to reiterate… Even though he occasionally CAN’T SEE THE BASEBALL, it’s harder to get him out than 95% of other major leaguers. In the Twins’ current lineup, that’s really all he needs to do as the team has plenty of other power bats to hit him in.
Now let’s focus on his fielding, which has become a much more quantifiable aspect of the game over the past few years. In 2017, of all qualified first basemen, he finished first in defensive rating according to the FanGraphs rating system. He ranked first in range rating, which I would assume means he can get to more batted balls in his direction than any other player at his position. He also ranked first in ultimate zone rating, which takes into account all outcomes of batted balls hit to him (resulting in hits, outs, or errors) and compares them to similarly batted balls at other first basemen. Thanks to Wikipedia for attempting to explain that…
In other words, having never played first base at any level until 2014, Mauer had already established himself as the best defensive player at his new position by last year. From the overall period of 2014-2017, FanGraphs ranked him the second-best defensive first baseman in the league.
By now, you probably get that I think Joe Mauer is good at baseball. Here’s five other Mauer fun facts that you may or may not already know:
#1 – He won three gold gloves in a row as a catcher from 2008-2010 (Wikipedia)
#2 – He has won as many batting titles as all other MLB catchers combined, ever (Bring Me the News)
#3 – He is 7th all-time among catchers in JAWS rating (average WAR over a player’s 7-year peak)
*Catchers ranked #1-9 are all in the Hall of Fame (Baseball-Reference)
#4 – He’s currently tied with Ken Griffey Jr. in all-time double plays grounded into (Baseball-Reference)
#5 – He’s had three years where 0% of his batted balls were pop ups
Saying the Twins made a mistake in paying him so much money over such a long period of time is pretty ignorant since there was no way of predicting a serious head injury three years later. Not to mention, if the Twins hadn’t paid him to stay in Minnesota, I’m sure the same people who criticize Mauer now would have been critical of the team at that time for being cheap.
If Mauer had not been injured and continued to produce at his pre-2014 levels as a catcher for even three or four more years, his numbers would make him a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Still, he has provided value as a first baseman and I will forever be grateful for his time as a Minnesota Twin.
