Now that I’ve had the chance to listen to some podcasts, read some interviews, get more info on the castaways, it’s time for a preview! This season might prove slightly trickier as we don’t know exactly how the Edge of Extinction twist is going to play out. We know once a player is voted out, they have a choice. They can end their game and head to Ponderosa, or they can continue on to The Edge (that’s what I’m calling the island they go to until we have an official name). Once on The Edge, they will be given a chance to re-enter the main game. When? We don’t know. How? We don’t know.
With that in mind, the preview is based on the premise of a regular “once you’re voted out, you’re done” season. There’s already enough guesswork here; no need to add more where it’s not necessary.
Fair warning, this will be longer than most season previews, as we have some historical data (fun!) to look at first. If you want to skip the analysis of how returning players have done on seasons with both new and returning players, do a quick control/command + F, and search for Players to Watch.
First, some history
Edge of Extinction features four returning players (Joe Anglim, Aubry Bracco, Kelley Wentworth, and David Wright), with two on each tribe. This is the eighth season to feature a mix of new and returning players. Let’s take a look at how returnees have fared in the previous seven such seasons. In the two Fans vs. Favorites seasons and Blood vs. Water, I will not go over each returnee individually, as they made up half the cast. I’ll just look at the finalists.
Guatemala (season 11)
Two returning players
Stephenie LaGrossa and Bobby Jon Drinkard
Finishes
Bobby Jon: 9th place and made the jury
Stephenie: Runner-up
Micronesia (season 16)
Returnee Finalists (2/2)
Amanda Kimmel: Runner-up
Parvati Shallow: Sole Survivor
Redemption Island (season 22)
Two returning players
Rob Mariano and Russell Hantz
Finishes
Russell: 17th, but 3rd voted out
Boston Rob: Sole Survivor
South Pacific (season 23)
Two returning players
Benjamin “Coach” Wade and Ozzy Lusth
Finishes
Ozzy: 4th place and made the jury, but was voted out twice before, returning both times from Redemption Island
Coach: Runner-up
Philippines (season 25)
Three returning players
Russell Swan, Jonathan Penner, and someone who I won’t mention by name
Finishes
Russell: 15th place
Penner: 7th place and made the jury
That other guy: Co-runner-up
Caramoan (season 26)
Returnee Finalists (2/3)
Dawn Meehan: Co-runner-up
John Cochran: Sole Survivor
Blood vs. Water (season 27)
Returnee Finalists (3/3)
Gervase Peterson: 2nd runner-up
Monica Culpepper: Runner-up
Tyson Apostol: Sole Survivor
There are a few takeaways here. First and foremost is that there is yet to be a new/returnee season where at least one returning player has not at least made Final Tribal. Based on that alone, you might want to make one of the four returnees your winner pick. The odds would seem to suggest that one or more of them will make it to Final Tribal. However, there is more to it than that. As you also surely noticed, four of these seasons had a returnee Sole Survivor. But each of those four comes with some caveats.
Both Fans vs. Favorites seasons were won by a returnee, as was Blood vs. Water. Again, those seasons had a 50/50 split between new and returning players. That fact alone greatly increased the odds at least one returning player would go far in the game. Boston Rob is the only returning player to win when the new players had the overall numbers advantage. And any fan of Survivor knows the general feeling surrounding Redemption Island. The way I see it, there are three ways to look at that season.
One, the new players were overall weaker than usual, giving returning players a large advantage, even being down in the numbers (whether you believe that was done intentionally by production is a whole other discussion). Two, Boston Rob simply put on one of the greatest (the greatest?) displays of social and strategic dominance the show has ever seen. Or three, and the way I see it, a combination of the first two.
So when you look a little closer, it would seem more likely that one of the 14 new players will emerge as Sole Survivor when it’s all said and done. But this is still Survivor, and it’s impossible to predict anything. I still might make one of these four my winner pick. We’ll have to see how the first episode plays out. But right now I would be hesitant to. Survivor players, in general, have only gotten smarter. They likely won’t be as willing to let four big threats like this hang around too long. But you never know, maybe they will be like Boston Rob’s tribe, star struck and unable – perhaps unwilling – to see how he was manipulating them and controlling the entire game.
Okay, enough of that. That was a complete post in itself. Time to get to the player previews, the real reason we’re all here.
Players to Watch
The Returnees
Joe Anglim (Kama)
Aubry Bracco (Kama)
Kelley Wentworth (Manu)
David Wright (Manu)
While I’m in no way saying these four are identical players, I’m going to talk about them as a group, rather than individually. There are a couple reasons to do so. One, if you’re taking the time to read this, I can only assume you’re not only a fan of the show, but a bigger fan, bordering on super-fan. I mean, who else would spend part of their day reading 2,000+ words speculating on an upcoming Survivor season? All that is to say you likely already know plenty about them. These four have also played recently enough that even newer fans should have a good idea of who they are.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, they are all coming into the game with the same target on their back. Yes, they have different areas of strength, but the fact that they have all played before is reason enough for the rest of the players to be wary of them.
If I’m on the beach, my top two priorities would be getting out the two returnees on my tribe. But not right away. Their experience in the game can be vital to a tribe’s early success. They should use that for a bit before cutting them loose. But cut them loose they will have to. That experience is a double-edged sword. It gives them a distinct advantage over every other castaway. And that can’t go unchecked. It will be a tall task getting all four out before the merge, but that should be the ultimate goal.
In addition to their experience, Joe, Aubry, Kelley, and David are all very likable. And as we’ve seen time and again it’s hard to vote out those you like. They all need to focus on forging those personal bonds as soon as possible. People get blinded by emotion all the time, often resulting in them choosing to keep a threat around longer than they should. And make no mistake, these four are all major threats. Having strong personal relationships to fall back on should prolong their time in the game.
The key for each will be making it to the merge. You might be saying, “Well duh, Matt, you can’t win if you don’t make the merge.” And that would be a fair point. But the game changes at the merge. Old allies and enemies alike are reunited. Your focus can shift, whether you mean it to or not. And there will be other threats who emerged during the pre-merge. Plus, if all four can make it to this point (unlikely I would say) they could form a dangerous foursome that could wreak havoc the rest of the way.
With the four we know now out of the way, let’s look at some of the new players of note. My official winner pick will be made during my premiere recap (though I do have a few I’ll be keeping a closer eye on), but these are some of the new players I think could make some noise this season.
Kama Tribe
Eric
Honestly, I just like his vibe. Yes, he’s a firefighter, which could go against him if the others want to play that card. But he seems to have a good head on his shoulders, he’s obviously in good physical shape, and he seems well-suited to the outdoors. But if I had to pick out one thing to focus on, it would be this line, from his interview with Dalton Ross for EW:
“I try to remember that 99.9 percent of the time I am NOT the smartest, coolest, most interesting, deserving, or important person in the room.”
That kind of mindset is huge. Once you start thinking you’re the top dog in the game, that’s when you need to watch out. But it’s often the time when you lose some of that awareness. If he can keep that focus, and never assume his position in the game, that could go a long way in keeping his mind right.
Ron
I love the guy’s energy. He seems extremely likable and he’s obviously a smart guy. If he can channel his natural energy into a straight-line focus on the game, that could help him go a long way. However, he does have a bit of fame, so you always have to wonder about the possibility of being recognized. But if he’s able to stay under the radar even just a little bit, he should have a long run.
Aurora
Aurora is going to be an interesting player to watch. I think she has the widest range of possible outcomes. She has winner upside, but a floor of first one out. She comes off as very self-aware – one of the most important qualities in a good Survivor player – even acknowledging the fact that she tends to struggle making friends. While knowing that weakness is a good first step, overcoming it can be a whole different animal. If she doesn’t connect with her tribe off the bat, her time in the game could be short. But if she finds a solid group, she could be a major force in the game.
Manu Tribe
Rick
If Rick sticks around long enough, he should be one of the key narrators of the season. His job as a news anchor should help him give some great confessionals as he weaves different story lines together. He’s also a morning news anchor, and those shows are often a bit looser, more light-hearted. I’m hoping he has a chance to let his personality shine. Rick should be a fun player, for as long as he’s able to last – which, for the record, I think will be a while.
Lauren
She’s young, athletic, ,smart, good looking, and says she wants to play like Parvati. That last part is a tall task, as Parvati is one of the best players the game has ever seen. If Lauren is able to successfully channel Parvati in her game, she could be in for a deep run. But if she tries and fails? Lauren could crash and burn and end up an early boot.
Dan aka “Wardog”
I mean, right? If we’re just talking about players who are going to make things interesting, and be an entertaining personality, Wardog has to be included. That’s really all I’ve got to say.
Power Rankings
Because who doesn’t love arbitrarily ranking things based on minimal information that will inevitably end up being all but useless?
Kama
- Aubry
- Joe
- Eric
- Ron
- Aurora
- Julia
- Gavin
- Victoria
- Julie
Manu
- Kelley
- David
- Rick
- Lauren
- Reem
- Chris
- Dan
- Keith
- Wendy
Prediction Time!
As I said before, I’ll reveal my official winner pick in my premiere recap. But depending on how the first hour goes, I’ll be looking closely at those in the middle third of my power rankings for each tribe. The top third should be obvious threats, players everyone else should be targeting from a fairly early point. And the bottom third will find themselves on an uphill battle for any number of reasons. The middle third is the sweet spot.
The Returnees
I’m going to call my shot and say this is the first time no returning player makes it to Final Tribal. I think 2/4 will make the merge. And if we’re going big, I’ll say it’s David and Aubry. Joe and Kelley are obvious physical threats, and I think they will both be voted out just before the merge. I think Aubry will finish somewhere around 7th-9th place. And I’m calling a 5th place finish for David, as the tribe (smartly) votes him out ahead of the final four.
First One Out
This is the first person voted out, not first person completely eliminated from the game. As revealed in Josh Wigler’s “First One Out” podcast, the contestants will not be told about the Edge of Extinction twist. Knowing that, the votes should proceed as they normally would.
If Kama goes to first Tribal
I don’t know, Gavin? Nobody really jumped out to me on the Kama tribe. Everyone on Kama seemed – to some extent – to be fairly solid. This is literally based off one interview where he tried to be funny but none of the jokes hit. If that’s his everyday personality, that could be a problem for him. A stretch, I know, but that’s the best I’ve got.
If Manu goes to first Tribal
Wendy. I think she’s going to stand out to the rest of the tribe, and not in the way she would be hoping. On the island, and especially in the beginning of the game, perception is reality. Wendy comes across and someone who could be perceived as “weird” or a little “out there.” And early on, that can be all it takes. Unfair? Yes. But when you only get three days to get to know eight other people, you’re going to have minimal information to go on.
And that’s it for our preview. It seems like a fun cast, and that’s usually the biggest determining factor of whether or not a season is good. We’ll see how the Edge of Extinction twist plays out, though I’m a bit wary of it heading into the season. But however it turns out, who really cares? Because all that really matters is that at the end of the day, Survivor is back!
Survivor: Edge of Extinction premieres Wednesday, February 20th at 8pm/7 CT on CBS.
Where to follow:
Personal: Twitter @MattHambidge, Instagram @matthambidge
News From The Couch: Twitter @NFTCouch, Instagram @newsfromthecouch
