For the first time I’ll be giving Fantasy Survivor a shot. There’s a group of five people: myself; two of our other writers, Chris and City; Mary, Chris’s wife; and Maddie, one of Mary’s friends. Here is a summary of the rules and scoring system. This is the first time any of us have done a fantasy game for Survivor so I know the scoring system will be far from perfect. We’re going to give it a shot and we’ll tweak as needed for next season, assuming we do it again. At first blush, I’m worried it’s not skewed strong enough to the winner and those others that make to the Final 3. But I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
General Rules
Snake draft, resulting in teams of 4.
Draft order determined randomly using an online draft order simulator.
Each player makes a winner pick, which does not have to come from their team.
Winner picks must be submitted by 11:59 PM CT on Sunday, March 4th. Late picks will not be accepted.
Winner picks can be changed once per season, and only at the merge. Once the merge happens, if someone wishes to change their pick, each player has until the beginning of the next week’s episode to submit. Meaning if the merge week is a double episode, they still have until the beginning of the following week’s episode. Again, late picks will not be accepted.
Winner pick: 10 if first pick, 7 if you switch at the merge and original pick is still in the game, 5 if original pick was voted out pre-merge. If the deadline was missed for the original picks, post-merge winner pick is worth 5 points.
Find or earn idol or other advantage: 2 points. Must be found or earned. For example, if a castaway is sent to Ghost Island and an idol is waiting for them there, no points will be awarded.
Use idol correctly: 3 points. “Correctly” will be defined as the idol saves the person on whom it was played. Whether or not the use of the idol was the correct play will not be taken into account, as that can be too subjective. In that same regard, no points will be awarded for use of non-idol advantages.
Making the merge: 1 point per player
Winner is on your team: 5 points
Player quits: -10 points. Legit quits only. Medivacs will not count. If a player leaves but not through a “true quit” (example being Terry Deitz leaving Second Chance to deal with a family emergency) that also will not count.
Someone plays a fake idol one of your players made: 2 points
One of your players plays a fake idol: -2 points
Winning individual reward: 1 point per win. If there is a post-merge group reward, each player on the winning team will receive a point. If a player sits out and gets to support one of the teams and take part in the reward should that team win, that player would not receive a point.
Winning individual immunity: 1 point per win
Winning Final 4 Immunity: 2 points (total, not in addition to the standard 1 point)
3,1 (11) Matt: Sebastian 3,2 (12) Maddie: Michael 3,3 (13) Chris: Chelsea 3,4 (14) Mary: Jenna 3,5 (15) City: Stephanie G.
4,1 (16) City: Bradley 4,2 (17) Mary: Donathan 4,3 (18) Chris: Morgan 4,4 (19) Maddie: Chris 4,5 (20) Matt: Stephanie J.
Final Rosters and Analysis Matt: Wendell, Jacob, Sebastian, Stephanie J. Wendell and Jacob could both win the game (though Jacob likely will have to get past the “lovable goof” persona the others might see him as). Sebastian could make Final 5 or better, but I’m not sure he’ll have the strategic chops to pull out a win. But he could be a challenge beast. Stephanie J. is likely an early boot.
Maddie: Domenick, Desiree, Michael, Chris Domenick could emerge as a dangerous player, but if continues to channel Tony too much, he could be seen as too dangerous and be voted out early. I like Desiree’s chances here. I think she’s in a great spot. Michael is a bit of a wild card. He’s only 18, how much will that show out on the island? Chris just seems like a douche bag. Some might keep him around as a goat, but he might be too much for anyone to handle for very long.
Chris: Brendan, Laurel, Chelsea, Morgan I think Brendan just might be the most dangerous player in the game. He seems to have the physical, social, and strategic elements down. However, being the best or most dangerous player is a double-edged sword. The others will likely catch on to this as well and vote him out sometime around the merge, if not earlier. Laurel might be too confident for her own good. I don’t know that she’ll be able to hide how well she knows the game. Like Brendan, a high-risk/high-reward pick. Both Brendan and Laurel will have nowhere to hide once the merge hits. Chelsea could sneak through to the merge as I don’t think anyone will see her as much of a threat. But I wouldn’t expect her to go much farther than that. Morgan’s a bit of a tough read. There’s really nothing about her that screams big threat. But on the flip side, there isn’t anything obvious that should cause anyone to target her. That kind of player can be dangerous if they’re allowed to get too far in the game.
Mary: James, Kellyn, Jenna, Donathan James is possibly the smartest player to ever play the game (IQ-wise at least) but people that smart often are slightly lacking in social skills. That could be what keeps him from winning the game. I like Kellyn a lot. I think she should be one of the pre-season favorites to win. I don’t like Jenna’s chances. She could be another first boot candidate. Donathan seems to have a wide range of possible outcomes. He could be an early vote, or he could find his way into the Final 3, though I don’t think he has much of a chance to win the game.
City: Libby, Angela, Stephanie G., Bradley I keep thinking of Andrea Boehlke as a good comparison for Libby. If that’s accurate, we can expect her to make it at least to the merge, top 6-8 or so, but will be just missing something that causes her to come up short. However, she comes off as quite the charmer, so if he does find herself in the Final 3, she just might be able to talk her way into the Sole Survivor title. I like Angela a lot. My fear with her is that she will come off as too serious or as someone who is playing the game too hard. She could also find herself on the outs as the oldest player in the game, though it’s fair to say 42 is quite young for a season’s oldest player. In a season with so many obvious threats, Stephanie G. could slip through unnoticed for a while. She could conceivably advance very far without having to do all that much until it gets down to the Final 8 or so. But she comes off as very sociable, so flying under the radar might not be too possible for her. Bradley is the wildest of wild cards. He could be the first one voted out, he could end up winning the game. He is clearly very smart and will know the game as well as or better than all other 19 castaways. But in his “First One Out” interview with Josh Wigler, he came off as over-the-top arrogant, completely unlikable, and as someone who looks down anyone he perceives as less intelligent than him or otherwise “beneath” him; and it appears he’s usually not shy about showing it. It will be very interesting to see how he handles himself socially once the game starts.
Completely Subjective Superlatives Team most likely to have all four players make the merge: Chris. Brendan and Laurel should make it as they will be two of the stronger players in the game. Chelsea and Morgan’s chances hinge on the others not seeing them as serious threats early in the game. Team most likely to have no players make the merge: I firmly believe everyone will have at least one player make it, but since I already typed the category out, I’ve got to pick someone. I think I can make the best argument for City’s team. Libby and Stephanie G. could get voted off for the same reasons. They’re both young, attractive women with dynamic personalities. If the tribes want to eliminate threats early on, they are just as likely to be targets as anyone. I already discussed what I think could lead to Angela and Bradley’s downfalls. Most likely to win the most individual immunities: Sebastian. This is as much about opportunity as it is challenge skill. I think he’s going to be around for a long time, top 5 or better. He’s a young, fit guy who lives in the water, and we all know Survivor loves a good water challenge. If he’s even just somewhat competent at puzzles, he could win three or four immunities. Most likely to make it to the end and get zero votes: Bradley. While he can absolutely win the game, I think a more likely outcome would be getting to the end thinking he has it in the bag, only to get shut out. Another option could be Donathan. But I think he would have so many friends on the jury that he could see a vote or two go his way. Most likely to be involved in a showmance (male and female): Michael and Chelsea (though not necessarily with each other). I might have said Chris but I don’t think he’ll be around long enough. Michael is a good looking dude and there are lots of attractive women on this season. Being only 18, he could easily find himself in a showmance, even if it’s one-sided and he’s just being manipulated. For Chelsea, simply put, she gives off that kind of vibe. I don’t know, I just get that feeling. Some might say Libby, but I think she’ll be able to flirt her way through and leave it at that, not quite going into true shomance territory. Most confessionals (male and female): Donathan and Kellyn. If Donathan stays around for a while, I think he’ll be a fan favorite. He’s got that star-struck, “aw shucks” personality that I’m sure the producers will love. He also has a great story and certainly comes in as an underdog. I absolutely love Kellyn. I went back and forth between her and Wendell for my first pick. If you watch her interviews, she is always smiling or laughing. She should be in the game a long time and should be one of the narrators of the season. Fewest confessionals from those I think will likely make the merge: Angela. Obviously I could have gone with someone who I think will be voted out early, but where’s the fun in that. Hence why I’m only choosing between those I think will make the merge. Again, I like Angela, I think she’ll do just fine in the game itself. But she comes off as such a normal person. I’m not sure she’ll have the personality that producers would flock to for confessionals. Most likely to smile when they get voted out: Kellyn and Donathan. They’re both just so happy to be here and have the opportunity to compete on Survivor. They’ll obviously be sad and disappointed if and when it happens, but they would be the easy bets for being the most positive when their time on the island comes to an end. Most likely to be my favorite player of the season (male and female): Jacob and Kellyn. Jacob is another person who just seems like he would be so much fun to be around. Now that doesn’t always translate to the game, but based on his interviews, I think it’s likely to carry over for him. I said it before and it should be obvious by now, I love Kellyn. I think she’s going to be so much fun to watch this season. I really hope she does well if for no other reason than I (and lots of other fans) will want to see as much of her as possible.
For those who are interested, I’ll be updating the scores weekly, hopefully no later than Saturday night for any given week. I will include winner picks once they have been made. Mine will be revealed in my recap of the premiere.
Survivor returns this Wednesday, February 28th, at 8 PM/7 CT on CBS.
