Recap for the last week’s penultimate episode here. Recaps and all other Survivor coverage found here.
Well here we are. The finale of Survivor: Ghost Island. The Final 6 consists of Angela, Dom, Donathan, Laurel, Sea Bass, and Wendell. Wendell and Dom are the clear, heavy favorites heading into the finale. But it is not guaranteed yet. There are still some outs for the other players. But with only two votes left, and with both Wendell and Dom holding idols, getting them both out in those two votes should prove to be extremely difficult. But hey, stranger things have happened, probably. Below I’ll list the players in order of who has the best chance to win, along with some thoughts for each.
It goes without saying, but clearly I’m going to say it anyway, this is all speculation based on what we’ve seen and how the game has gone so far. How we get to the Final 3 might be the most important aspect of all. If neither Wendell nor Dom makes the Final 3, whoever played the biggest role in that happening should have a leg up over the other two.
1A and 1B) Wendell and Dom Might as well group these two together. You could list either as the favorite over the other and I couldn’t argue with it. They’ve been together from Day 1 and have never wavered in their alliance. What’s unique here is that both turned out to be incredibly strong players. Neither player is being carried by the other. The reason I give Wendell the slight edge is I think he’s played a marginally better social game. He’s never really ruffled any feathers and seems to be generally well-liked by everyone.
Dom, on the other hand, has found himself more in the thick of things than Wendell. While he doesn’t seem to be outright hated by anyone, I could see the jury members finding it easier to hold a grudge against Dom than Wendell. He’s been more outwardly cocky than Wendell, which could be the difference maker.
This small difference would likely only come into play if both find themselves in the Final 3. If these two end up going against each other, I would expect a very close 6-4 vote. I’d give Wendell probably a 52/48 advantage, so basically a coin flip. If either finds himself in the Final 3 without the other, he wins hands down with what should be a clean 10-0-0 sweep.
3) Laurel Like everyone else, her chances hinge on whether or not they can vote out both Wendell and Dom. If that’s going to happen, Laurel will need to play a part, something she’s been reluctant to do all season. That reluctance would certainly hurt her in a Final 3 against Wendell and Dom, though I’m not sure it would make a difference. But if she can work her way into the Final Tribal with any two of the other three, I don’t see how she doesn’t win there. Though at that point Laurel would be the default winner.
4) Donathan Donathan has talked a big game but so far hasn’t been able to make any moves to back it up. To be fair, you can’t put the entire blame on him for that. He’s tried to get Laurel to make a move with him, but she just won’t budge. But still, a truly elite player would find a way to make it happen. Also going against him is the penultimate episode. It was not a great look for him to the other tribemates, three of which will still be voted off to the jury. He also didn’t have a great showing at tribal in front of said jury. Impressions matter, and at this late stage in the game, bad impressions become that much harder to overcome.
His only real hope is the same as Sea Bass’s: Work his way into a Final 3 along with Sea Bass and Angela. In that case, just his personal story might be enough to get him the win.
5) Sea Bass He hasn’t really done much (anything?) all season. He hasn’t done anything to make himself a threat. But on the flip side, he hasn’t done anything to rub anyone the wrong way (yes, there’s a bad joke in there somewhere but let’s move on). He comes off as super likable and by all accounts that’s how everyone on the island views him too. If he somehow finds himself in a Final 3 with Donathan and Angela, he just might be able to pull it out. On a side note, that would have to be one of the most depressing Final Tribals in Survivor history.
Keep in mind though, that he does have a wild card with his extra vote advantage. If he can use that correctly to make a big move in front of the jury? Happening so late in the game, it might be just enough. Though again, it’s contingent on a Final 3 without Wendell, Dom, or Laurel.
6) Angela I’m not sure there’s anything she can do to win at this point. Even winning out in immunity and being the major force in getting Dom and Wendell out still might not be enough. She’s been invisible for almost the entire season, and I don’t see that changing in the last two hours. I see her best case scenario as a “No Vote Goat” Even if she went up against Donathan and Sea Bass in the Final 3, I don’t see how anyone could logically cast a vote for her to win.
And of course I can’t leave without at least touching on the “Winner’s Edit” theory. I’ve said before I don’t buy into it completely, but that it does definitely have some merit. And I think the later you get into the game, the more applicable it becomes. Angela has barely been a part of this season, at least from an airtime standpoint. Sea Bass’s edit hasn’t been much better. Wendell and Dom have both received great edits all season. Laurel and Donathan haven’t received what I would consider a Winner’s Edit, but they have both featured prominently this season. And their edits have mostly been positive.
Ultimately, a Dom or Wendell win would be a satisfying end to the season, as they’ve been the two strongest players all season. A Laurel win would be okay as well, provided she doesn’t beat Dom or Wendell or both in the end. A win by anyone else would be a huge letdown to what’s been a mostly very entertaining season. But either way I can’t wait to see how it all shakes out. I’ll go on the record and predict a Wendell win over Dom and Laurel, with a 6-4-0 vote.
