This is it, folks. Winners at War is upon us. We finally have the season fans have wanted for years. Twenty castaways, twenty winners. It doesn’t get much bigger than this! Let’s not waste any time and jump right into it!
The Castaways
Each player’s previous appearances are listed in parentheses, with the season they won in bold.
Dakal (Red)
Tyson Apostol (China, Heroes vs. Villains, Blood vs. Water) Sophie Clarke (South Pacific) Sandra Diaz-Twine (Pearl Islands, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers) Wendell Holland (Ghost Island) Yul Kwon (Cook Islands) Sarah Lacina (Cagayan, Game Changers) Amber Mariano (Australian Outback, All-Stars) Kim Spradlin-Wolfe (One World) Tony Vlachos (Cagayan, Game Changers) Nick Wilson (David vs. Goliath)
Sele (Blue)
Natalie Anderson (San Juan del Sur) Danni Boatwright (Guatemala) Jeremy Collins (San Juan del Sur, Cambodia) Ben Driebergen (Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers) Michele Fitzgerald (Khao Rong) Adam Klein (Millennials vs. Gen X) Rob Mariano (Marquesas, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island) Parvati Shallow (Cook Islands, Micronesia, Heroes vs. Villains) Denise Stapley (Philippines) Ethan Zohn (Africa, All-Stars)
We’ll get into some more specific points, tribe dynamics, strategies, etc. in a bit, but it’s almost a pointless exercise. You have players who have been on seasons together, were allies and enemies, are friends outside of the show, are married to each other. It’s going to be interesting to see how all that plays out, but these are some of the best of the best in the show’s history. Natalie and Jeremy worked closely in San Juan, but if they start off on opposite alliances, there’s no guarantee they will or can work together in any capacity. Michele and Adam are friends in real life, but does that automatically mean they’re going to work together? There’s endless (and fun) speculation for how this will all play out during Winners at War, and I’ll probably only be able to scratch the surface of it all.
The Twists
This is where my excitement is tempered a bit. If there was ever a season that didn’t need an overabundance of twists, it’s Winners at War. Want to try out something new, throw these all-time greats for a loop? Sure, I get that. And the show is trying that with the Fire Tokens (more on those soon). But it feels like they’re overdoing, on paper at least. We’ll of course have to wait and see how the show plays out, but on the outset, I’m a bit nervous. And I’m particularly nervous about this first one.
Edge of Extinction
*sigh*
Yep, that’s right. Survivor is bringing back it’s single worst creative decision in the show’s history. That’s not hyperbole, that’s not an exaggeration. That’s my firm belief. It’s worse than Redemption Island, worse than the Haves vs. Have-Nots, worse than the Medallion of Power. Edge of Extinction sucks. Of all the seasons to bring it back for, an epic all-winners season should have been the last choice. I’m very worried that EoE is going to ruin what should have been an easy top 5 season.
There is one silver lining, however. If this cast is adamantly against the Edge, it could bring about its end. If the players are talking about how nobody who comes back from the Edge deserves to win the game, if they target those returning players immediately upon re-entry into the game, maybe that will force Jeff Probst and production to take note. Probst so far is not listening to fans and those who cover the show; maybe he would listen to the big name players.
However, there is one way to compromise that would make the Edge tolerable to have around: stop it at the merge. Have one person come back at the merge, maybe one earlier than too if you want. And then be done with it. Those who lose out are not on the jury. It’s not ideal, but it’s better than what the Edge is now.
But there’s not much use talking more about it here. There’s more to cover right now besides the dumpster fire that is the Edge of Extinction. And I’m sure I’ll have plenty of chances to rail on it throughout the season. But while we’re at it, please go hammer the hashtag #EndEdgeOfExtinction all over social media, especially Twitter.
And as of TODAY, we have good news! In an interview with Rob Cesternino ahead of the Winners at War premiere, Probst revealed that the show decided that they’re “not going to do the Edge for a while. I’ve heard people. I got it.”
Jeff Probst reveals the Edge of Extinction is going away for "a while" during Season 40 red carpet interview with @robcesterninohttps://t.co/rWdaGUwBmj
The Probst portion of the interview starts at 29.:32.
We’ll see how long “a while” turns out to be, but for now let’s all rejoice in this awesome news!
Fire Tokens
Honestly, this one is kind of confusing and I need to wait and see how it plays out. The tokens are Survivor’s new form of currency, used to buy various advantages in the game. The basic gist of it is this:
Each player starts the game with one fire token. If you get voted out, you have to send your token to someone still in the game. The advantages you can buy are on EoE, and you have to pay someone on the Edge for the advantage.
If you want to know more ahead of the season, read this interview Probst did with Dalton Ross at EW. What I’m most curious about is if the players have opportunities to earn or win more tokens, or if there are only ever 20 tokens in play.
Loved Ones Visit
I have not seen this one officially confirmed anywhere yet, but it comes from Martin Holmes and Inside Survivor, so it’s likely good intel. In a post from last July, Holmes reported two shake-ups to the Survivor staple.
Not only will those still in the game have their loved ones flown out, but those on EoE will as well. And it won’t just be one family member, but groups of family members. The exact number of allowed members is not yet clear.
When this was first reported, I was against all of this. But I think that had something to do with the fact this announcement was coming on the heels of the fire tokens and Edge of Extinction announcements. I was not in the best Survivor head space.
Now that I’ve had time to think about it more, I’m okay with the additional family members coming to Fiji. It’s a huge, all-winners season. Sure, let’s go with it. Not so sure about the Edge though. Getting voted out of the game is supposed to be a negative thing, because, you know, you’re out of the game. The Edge is slowly (or maybe not so slowly) and methodically ruining that. If this is just a one-time thing for this season, fine, whatever. But if this is another consistent change (assuming the worst and that EoE is here to stay)? Then I’m 100% against it.
Prize Money
Finally something that’s nothing but a positive. Traditionally the prize money is awarded on a sliding scale, starting at $2,500 and going up to the million dollar prize for the Sole Survivor. But for this season, Survivor and CBS and ramping it up big-time. First, the major piece: whoever wins Winners at War will be taking home $2 million! Additionally, as confirmed in an article by EW, each player is guaranteed a minimum of $25,000, plus another $10,000 for appearing on the reunion show. That’s no small gesture, and likely one that CBS conceded they needed to make in order to make this season happen.
Now, if they’d only bring back the treasure trunk of cash, we’d be in business.
Challenges
In an interview with EW, challenge producers John Kirhoffer and Chris Marchand revealed some interesting tidbits about this season’s challenges. When asked if they would be including some of Survivor’s classic challenges, Kirhoffer responded:
It’s all classics. We’ve switched up, as we sometimes do. A different classic front end with a different classic back end. So we might have a front end of a challenge from Heroes v Healers v Hustlers with a puzzle from Kaoh Rong, which is something we actually have. So that type of stuff. But it’s classics that you’ve seen.
The entire interview is fun and worth a read, but it’s this part that I want to focus on. I both love it and am hesitant about it. I really like the idea of someone getting a chance at redemption or to prove themselves again at a challenge they’ve previously won. It will hopefully add a small extra layer of strategy too. If someone previously dominated a challenge, will they automatically be given a second chance at it? If they failed or lost, will their tribe give them another opportunity? Will they want it? It’s small, but as I’ve said numerous times before, I’m all for anything that forces a tribe or individual into a decision. And if something can be added that makes that decision even slightly more complicated, then that’s just all the better.
But on the flip side, this is season 40! What better time to bust out a couple new, huge, epic challenges for these all-time greats to take on? Ultimately, though, it will likely come down to which challenges they use. A fun challenge is a fun challenge, even if we’ve seen it before. So as long as they (at least for the most part) picked some good ones, this won’t be a worry.
Players to Watch Notes of Interest
It’s an all-winner season, everyone is a player to watch. So rather than doing the normal thing of highlighting a handful of players, let’s look at some groups of players instead.
The One Hit Wonders
Sophie, Wendell, Yul, Kim, Nick, Natalie, Danni, Ben, Michele, Adam, and Denise have all only played once. How are they going to react and adapt to their second time out? We’ve seen before how experience can play a huge part in a game, especially early on. Could the fact that they’ve only played one season hurt them right out of the gates? While I’m inclined to say no, it might be something to keep an eye on for the first couple of episodes.
The bigger piece to watch for is how this group changes – or doesn’t change – their overall strategy and approach. A few fast examples:
Kim essentially had the game won from the moment they stepped on the beach, in what appeared to be one of the easiest wins ever. How will she react if and when she needs to play from the bottom?
Wendell had Dom, a true ride or die, by his side the entire game. That won’t be able to happen on a season like this. How will he course correct when his #1 ally is voted out?
Danni played a quiet, mostly social game. What’s she going to do if she can’t make friends with everybody and needs to rely more on her strategic wits than social charm?
Denise has a completely unique perspective on the game. She attended every single Tribal Council during her season. With one individual immunity win, she was vulnerable at every other Tribal Council. She knows what it’s like to grind her way to a win.
The Big Three
Every single player here is a threat to win, but there are three that deserve mention over the rest: Parvati, Rob, and Sandra. There’s no need to go over their resumes; if you’re reading this, you know. But does their larger target automatically mean they’re going to be early boots? Yes and no. I think they should be targets right away, but if they’re able to get a foot in the game and survive the first vote or two, any one of them could be primed for another deep run.
There’s a reason they’re considered the best, many reasons. They know how to use their skills and abilities to the best of their power in Survivor; yes, in theory every winner could say that. But not like these three can. And they have as much experience as anybody out here. They know what usually works and what doesn’t. And perhaps more importantly, they know how to adapt.
A final three of Parvati, Rob, and Sandra is probably the least likely final three to occur, But to think that one could be sitting there at the end? I wouldn’t bet on it. But I’m not going to kid myself and say I would be shocked if day 39 rolls around and one of them is there, fighting for their chance to win.
Other Heavy Hitters
We all know perception is often reality in Survivor. So who might step onto the beach and be perceived as a major threat right away?
Kim and Yul are often talked about as two of the better winners. They are no doubt aware of this fact, so hopefully they are ready to deflect here when necessary. Jeremy’s win in Cambodia was incredibly impressive, a complete win in all facets of the game.
And then of course there’s Tony. He played one of the wildest and most fun games in winning Cagayan before being voted out second in Game Changers. He’s a huge threat, not only to win, but to make the game more difficult for everyone else.
While these may be some of the “obvious” bigger threats, where this gets fun is that any player may consider any other player a huge threat for any number of reasons.
Don’t trust Sarah? Vote her out. Concerned that Ben is going to find another cache of idols? Vote him out. Think Adam’s super duper fandom makes him a clear threat? Vote him out. This might actually be low key what I’m most excited about. Seeing how the players perceive one another, who they decide to align with or target – and why – is going to be fascinating. I can’t wait.
The Relationships
This is another area of that game that should prove quite compelling. Whether it’s the starting tribes, a swap, the merge, even the hated Edge of Extinction, pre-existing relationships could, and in all likelihood will, play a big part in how Winners at War plays out.
Marriage
The big one is Amber and Rob. This marks the first time a married couple has competed on the show at the same time outside of a Blood vs. Water season. They’re on opposing tribes to start, but their marriage could still be a force in the game.
Someone could decide to target either Amber or Rob right away, not even give them a chance of joining together at a swap or the merge. If the two of them got together, it could be a power couple like we’ve never before seen.
But on the flip side, would voting one of them out make those responsible an immediate target for the other? Blind revenge isn’t the best motivating factor to drive your strategy, but these are shrewd players. We even saw a similar version of this with Natalie in San Juan del Sur, after Jeremy was voted out. She bided her time and waited for the opportunity to strike. We know Rob is capable of this type of gameplay, and it’s probably safe to assume Amber is as well. They could let their revenge drive them while still keeping a focus on the larger game at hand.
Previous Seasons
Beyond that, there’s quite a bit of season cross overs to consider. Sandra, Sarah, and Tony all played together on Game Changers, and Sarah and Tony were also together on Cagayan. Sometimes there’s a bit of “guilt by association” with these relationships. Other players might assume that if two others played together previously, regardless of whether or not they were allies, they are going to work together this time around.
Yul and Parvati, Ethan and Amber, the list could go on and on. If players are looking for an easy connection to bond with someone else, shared seasons could be an entry point.
Real Life Friendships
I touched on this briefly in the tribe section, but several players here are friends outside the game. Tyson and Rob are known to be good friends. Will someone else want to target them to prevent them from joining forces down the line? Tyson and Amber are on the same tribe. Because of Tyson and Rob’s friendship, will others assume he and Amber are also good friends and therefore likely to be working together in the game?
This facet should also prove interesting due to how the players approach it. If you’re friends in real life, will they assume they’ll be allies in the game? How will one react if the other doesn’t want to work with them? There are just so many unique dynamics at play this season.
I cannot wait to see how allies and larger alliances are formed. The reasoning for joining or not joining forces, and the potential backlash, could be unlike any season up to this point. Everyone is connected to someone else one way or another, beyond being winners of Survivor.
Quick Hits
Danni and Ethan have been away from the game so long, and neither played big or flashy games, so others might not view them as serious threats right away; either or both could easily find their way deep into the game
Tyson noticeably improved as a player in his second and third seasons; can he continue that trend?
Michele seems to be coming into Winners at War with a chip on her shoulder; can she carry that while also maintaining necessary focus on the game?
A number of players have spoken out against the Edge of Extinction in pre-game interviews; will that mindset hold once they’re in the actual game? (fingers crossed that the answer to this is a resounding YES)
First One Out
With EoE in play again, this becomes more difficult to predict – not that it’s ever easy anyway. For the purpose of this exercise, I’m going to assume the players will vote as they would on a normal season.
Dakal
Sandra seems like the easy choice, but we said the same thing before Game Changers. And of course there’s Tony to consider. But if he can tone it down from Game Changers even a tiny bit, I think he’ll be okay early on.
But I think Nick could be in trouble if Dakal goes to the first tribal. He’s the most recent winner and likely hasn’t had as many chances to form outside-the-game relationships. Often the first vote comes down to who isn’t fitting in. Not that Nick isn’t a personable guy. But I think back to his beginning days on David vs. Goliath and I get worried. He may need a several days or a week or so to get his footing. And the fact that he won such a recent – and highly acclaimed – season certainly won’t help either. If Dakal loses first, Nick could find himself backed into a corner right away.
Sele
Parvati or Rob make for the obvious choices for Sele. But like Sandra, there’s a reason they’ve had so much success, there’s a reason they’re considered among the best players of all time. They know how to form relationships, and they know how to manipulate those relationships when needed.
While someone like Danni or Ethan – who have both been out of the game so long – worry me, I think Ben’s the mark here. He had a controversial win that should still be fairly fresh in everyone’s mind. And he’ll step onto the island as a huge threat to find idols. If he can’t find a solid core group right away, his days in the game could be numbered.
And there we have it! Kudos and thanks to those of you who read all the way to the end. If you’re enjoying my coverage, be sure to bookmark our Winners at Warpage to be sure you don’t miss out on anything.
I’m looking forward to a (hopefully) great season, although I honestly wouldn’t care too much if the season sucked if it helped get rid of EoE. And with that in mind, one more reminder to #EndEdgeOfExtinction.
Survivor: Winners at War premieres on Wednesday, February 12, at 8pm/7pm CT on CBS with a 2-hour episode.
