If you’re in need of bracket advice in advance of this year’s NCAA Basketball Tournament, you’ve come to the wrong place. While I love March Madness, the selection and qualification process just doesn’t make sense if the tournament selection committee is actually trying to find the 68 best college basketball teams in the country.
If you’re not familiar with how teams are selected to be in the NCAA Tournament, here’s a quick overview. There are around 30 conferences in Division I NCAA basketball, and each of them holds its own conference tournament in early or mid-March. The winner of each conference tournament earns an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. This means that after conference tournaments are over, there are only about 35 spots left in the bracket for at-large selections. A selection committee reviews the body of work of all remaining Division I teams and decides which teams have done enough to earn a spot.
I would never suggest taking away automatic bids from terrible conferences, because it adds to the excitement of March Madness and makes more early round upsets possible. The problem with allowing these automatic bids is that the winners of weaker conferences take spots away from worthy power conference teams that could actually make a deep run. A handful of teams on the bubble miss out every year because some 15-19 team from the Southwest Athletic Conference “earns” its tournament opportunity by beating a bunch of other bad teams.
In honor of the small schools that really don’t have a shot at winning even a single game, I’d like to give my analysis of some of the worst teams to qualify for the 2018 NCAA Basketball Tournament now that the field of 64 is finalized. I use a 100-point scale that involves several statistical factors to evaluate all teams that made the tournament. This year, Michigan State led all teams with a 97.7 rating, while Duke and Villanova came in second and third with 90.6 and 88.9, respectively. The following teams in the list below fell slightly short those powerhouses… Let’s get started!
Honorable Mention: Iona (11.7 rating)
Iona has had some credible NCAA Tournament teams in recent history, but this is not one of them. This is a competent offensive team, but defensively it is among the worst in this year’s field. The Gaels rank 203rd nationally in defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession) and 240th in effective field goal percentage allowed (field goal percentage weighted to account for three-point shots made). They also fail to create extra possessions by grabbing offensive rebounds and creating turnovers. Going up against Duke in the first round, one of the nation’s best offensive teams, is not a good matchup for Iona.
5th-Worst: Cal State Fullerton (8.3 rating)
The Titans are a truly mediocre team. While they don’t have glaring weaknesses on offense or defense, nothing they do really jumps off the page statistically. Similarly to Iona, Cal State Fullerton is atrocious at generating additional scoring changes, coming in 340th out of 351 eligible NCAA Division I teams. The Titans compiled these underwhelming numbers against the 194th-ranked strength of schedule. So, in other words, they blend right in with all of the subpar teams they played.
4th: Lipscomb (2.4 rating)
Another very boring team, Lipscomb’s ranks in offensive and defensive efficiency, floor percentage (the percentage of possessions a team scores at least one point, both for and against), and effective field goal percentage all ranged from 109th to 225th nationally against the 220th ranked schedule. Having no clear strengths and playing a well-below average schedule doesn’t bode well for their matchup against back-to-back finalist North Carolina.
3rd: Radford (-1.2 rating)
Here come the negative ratings. Without giving too much away about my rating system, it’s possible that a team could get a negative rating if it statistically has a zero percent chance of winning a game (given 12 years of data I’ve compiled). Well below average in three major offensive categories, Radford also plays the 343rd ranked pace in college basketball. There are eight teams in Division I NCAA basketball that get less possessions per game than Radford. To summarize, the Highlanders have no rhythm and still couldn’t score if they did. However, they do have Leroy Butts IV, and that’s all that matters.
2nd: UMBC (-3.3 rating)
A team with stats even less intimidating than its nickname, the UMBC Retrievers ranked 230th nationally in floor percentage and 239th in opponent effective field goal percentage. This means the Retrievers fall into about the 35th percentile in both a major offensive category and defensive category. They are also 237th in defensive rebounding. Let’s just say a lot would have to go right in order for them to force a missed shot, get the defensive rebound, and go back down the court and score on the other team, be it by free throw or field goal. Not a recipe for success. They also have the misfortune of playing number one overall seed Virginia in the first round.
The Worst: Texas Southern (-16.6 rating)
The pride of the SWAC (Southwest Athletic Conference), arguably the worst conference in college basketball, earned its way into the field of 64 with a play-in win over NC Central. Where do I begin? The Tigers’ average scoring margin this year was -2.1. To reiterate, they got outscored by an average of 2.1 points per game. Their record was 15-19 in the regular season. They were among the bottom quarter of Division I teams in defensive efficiency, opponent floor percentage and defensive rebounding. Ironically, they played at a very fast pace, which is the last thing you want to do if you’re getting outscored per possession. Texas Southern compiled these abysmal numbers against the 290th ranked schedule.
What does all of this mean? The Tigers consistently played some of the worst teams in college basketball and lost the majority of those games. How did they make the tournament, you ask? Their coach will tell you that they finally put together their optimal roster for the last few games of the regular season, getting players back from injuries and suspensions. He’s probably right as they are currently on a seven-game winning streak and the reigning SWAC tournament champions. Maybe it isn’t the worst team at the moment, but its “body of work” (as the tournament selection committee says) was unlike any other in the 2018 NCAA Tournament field, and not in a good way.
